Thursday, October 18, 2018  
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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/18 10:54

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday led by soybeans.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 200. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold up $2.60. 


   Corn trade is 3 cents to 4 cents lower with trade grinding along support 
with upside momentum slowing with harvest pressure returning to the market 
along with spillover trade from the outside markets. The harvest pace should 
begin to build again the next few days with the more open weather expected to 
persist into next week. Ethanol margins are under pressure again with the 
energy complex retreating and stocks continuing to build and futures testing 
the $1.25 area. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better 
harvest pace. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 382,500 metric tons 
(mt). On the December chart support is at the 100-day at $3.71, which we are 
just below at midday then the 20-day at $3.67. Resistance is at the $3.78 1/2 
September-October high reached on Monday. 


   Soybean trade is 15 cents to 17 cents lower with harvest pressure and 
outside market concerns encouraging liquidation this morning. Meal is $5 to $6 
lower and oil is 30 cents to 40 points lower. Soybean basis will likely see 
pressure again later in the week as farmers get back into the fields. Crop 
losses from the weather will likely take a while for trade to sort out, and 
will likely trigger volatile trade at times. Crush margins remain strong in the 
near term. South America should continue to see fairly normal early season 
progress in the near term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in 
Argentina. The weekly export sales were weak with 293,600 mb of beans, 104,100 
mt of meal, and 26,600 mt of oil. On the November chart support is the 10-day 
at $8.71, which we are testing at midday with the 20-day at $8.62 below that, 
with major resistance the 100-day at $8.85 3/4 and minor resistance at the 
recent high at $8.92. 


   Wheat trade is 3 cents to 6 cents lower with trade following the row crops 
lower after some early buying. The U.S. dollar has jumped back above 95 with 
more flight-to-safety trade. Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better 
conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the plains. 
Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in the drier 
areas. MATIF milling wheat is flat to lower. Jordan secured Black Sea origin 
wheat on their tender, but the U.S. is getting more competitive. The weekly 
export sales are improved at 476,000 mt. On the December Kansas City chart, we 
are below at the 10-day and 20-day at $5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band 
support at $5.10. Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.32.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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