DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/14 11:44
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn scores new highs, and leads at midday, yet again.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 35 lower. The dollar
index is 40 higher. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are
firmer with crude 0.40 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are mostly firmer with gold 9.30 higher.
Corn trade is 4 to 9 cents higher with front-month trade leading as bull
spreading continues with new highs scored for July and December with trade
backing of the highs at midday. The forecast looks to continue the recent
pattern into the next week, likely finishing late planting in some areas,
especially east along with continuing to hinder logistics pushing the basis
sharply higher as well. Ethanol margins have remained stable with ethanol
futures a dime higher this morning as well, with blender margins seeing the
biggest squeeze this a.m. USDA announced sales of 125,613 metric tons to
unknown. On the July nearby chart, support is the 10-day at $4.26, with the
upper Bollinger Band at 4.51 5/8, which we are above at midday.
Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade working higher again on acre
concerns, and spillover support from corn with little fresh demand news with
sales and cancelations. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher, and oil is 15 to 25
points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal just
above $320. South American currencies have firmed as they control the world
export business, which remains limited with the swine fever demand losses.
Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas. The corn/soybean ratio
has been more stable here as the last deciding days tick away. The daily wire
had sales of 130,000 to China and unknown each, with 136,000 canceled by China.
The July chart support is the 50-day at $8.65, with next resistance the 100-day
at 8.96, which we are just below.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade trying to follow row crops
as HRW harvest expands on the plains. The Kansas City/Chicago spread pushed to
new highs at 67 cents with Kansas City gaining slightly this morning. The heavy
rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the belt while harvest
should build elsewhere, with maturity still lagging. The dollar moved back
above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains mixed. Hard red
wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn
values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. On the July
Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then the 10-day at 4.62,
which we are above at midday with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.97 as
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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