Minding Ag's Business         08/12 17:37

   Leaning More on FSA Data, NASS Again Boosts Acreage in August Reports

   NASS bumped up both corn and soybean planted acreage by 1.4 million acres 
each in Wednesday's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand 
Estimates (WASDE) reports. Among the reasons for higher acreage estimates is 
NASS relied more on acreage data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA).

Chris Clayton
Farm Business Editor

   The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) explained on Wednesday 
that one driver for increasing corn and soybean acreage was that the statistics 
service relied more on Farm Service Agency (FSA) acreage reports.

   NASS bumped up both corn and soybean planted acreage by 1.4 million acres 
each in Wednesday's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand 
Estimates (WASDE) reports. Among the reasons for higher acreage estimates is 
that NASS relied more on acreage data from FSA that was also released on 
Wednesday.

   "This year, NASS has made greater use of acreage information reported to 
USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA), allowing USDA to build on information 
producers have already provided while focusing the survey on the information 
only producers can provide -- crop yields and current growing conditions," NASS 
stated in a news release before the WASDE and Crop Production reports were 
issued.

   The news release also emphasized the importance of farmers participating in 
NASS surveys.

   "Producer participation in the Agricultural Yield Survey makes a difference 
in the quality of USDA's data," said Deputy Secretary Stephen Alexander Vaden. 
"This year's August Crop Production report not only reflects data from the 
Agricultural Yield Survey, but it also builds on our commitment to producers to 
make better use of information already available, reduce unnecessary reporting, 
and continue delivering the trusted statistics on which agriculture depends. By 
combining producer-reported yield information with FSA acreage data and sound 
statistical methods, USDA is improving the quality, objectivity, and integrity 
of our agricultural statistics."

   USDA leaders are emphasizing a plan to overhaul NASS surveys and data 
collection. Last week at Farmfest in Minnesota, Agriculture Secretary Brooke 
Rollins said USDA officials would spend August holding roundtables with farmers 
at events around the country to discuss how to improve NASS data collection and 
the accuracy of crop reports.

   At the same time, NASS injected some confusion about its methodology on 
social media Wednesday. NASS posted on X early in the day, "For the August Crop 
Production report, NASS is using multiple sources beyond survey results, 
including satellite and remote sensing data, administrative data from federal 
partners, and objective yield measurements to strengthen acreage and yield 
estimates."

   NASS then deleted that post, but stated that the agency used "normal 
procedures for all forecasts included in today's Crop Production report." NASS 
added, "In an effort to enhance transparency regarding our procedures at 
@usda_nass a tweet was posted earlier highlighting the various data sources 
used in August. This was not intended to suggest we were doing anything 
different from recent years for today's report." 

   MARKET SAW POSITIVE SWING

   Despite the acreage shifts, corn, soybeans and wheat all saw strong gains on 
Wednesday. December corn futures were up 20.25 cents a bushel to nearly $4.81 a 
bushel after the WASDE showed strong demand for corn and cut ending stocks to a 
projected 1.653 billion bushels.

   DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery noted the corn futures increase was the 
largest daily gain since President Donald Trump's visit to China in mid-May.

   November soybeans also rose 14.5 cents to more than $11.83 a bushel. 
September wheat rose 22.5 cents a bushel to more than $6.52 a bushel as well.

   NASS ON CORN ACRES

   NASS increased corn acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.73 million acres 
(ma). The change marked the third consecutive year NASS has revised corn 
acreage in the August report.

   The report showed farmers in Iowa and Minnesota increased corn planting by 
250,000 acres each, while Wisconsin was up 200,000 acres, North Dakota and Ohio 
were up 150,000 acres, New York was up 110,000 acres, and Missouri and South 
Dakota were each up 100,000 acres.

   Conversely, NASS reported Nebraska farmers cut back corn acreage by 350,000 
acres.

   SOYBEAN ACRES

   NASS also increased soybean plantings by 1.4 million acres to 86.79 ma from 
the June report.

   Missouri's planted soybean acreage was increased by 350,000 acres, followed 
by Mississippi at 330,000 acres and Minnesota at 300,000 acres. Arkansas and 
Nebraska each saw increases of 250,000 acres, followed by Wisconsin at 150,000 
acres.

   Illinois, Iowa and South Dakota each cut soybean planting by 200,000 acres, 
followed by Ohio, which was down by 150,000 acres, and North Carolina cut 
100,000 acres.

   COMBINED ACREAGE CHANGES

   Looking at combined changes, NASS increased corn and soybean planted acres 
in Minnesota by 550,000 and in Missouri by 450,000 acres. Wisconsin saw a 
350,000-acre combined acreage increase, and Mississippi acreage rose by 300,000 
acres.

   In its crop comments, NASS didn't provide much detail on the acreage changes 
for crops, but stated multiple times, "Acreage updates were made based on a 
thorough review of all available data."

   On social media, NASS posted, "Today's estimates were based on acreage 
certified as planted by farmers to FSA. Principal crop acres are only up 0.4% 
from last year and right in line with recent years."

   FSA CROP ACREAGE NUMBERS

   The Farm Service Agency (FSA) also released reported crop acreage data on 
Wednesday, which comes from farmers who participate in USDA programs. FSA 
numbers are always slightly lower than NASS' because a small number of farms 
are not enrolled in USDA programs, so they are not required to provide their 
information.

   FSA reported acreage:

   -- Corn, 94.765 million acres.

   -- Soybeans, 85.452 million acres.

   -- Wheat, 45.984 million acres.

   -- Total Cotton, 10.166 million acres.

   FSA also reported prevented planting acres at 3.147 million acres, which is 
down from 4.866 million acres a year ago.

   Chris Clayton can be reached at chris.clayton@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN




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